Decadal Variability in the Impact of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on the Winter Climate of Northern Russia

Abstract The Arctic continues to warm at a much faster rate than the global average. One process contributing “Arctic amplification” involves changes in low-frequency macroscale atmospheric circulation patterns and their consequent influence on regional climate. Here, using ERA5 data, we examine decadal impact of seven such winter near-surface temperature (SAT) precipitation (PPN) northern Russia calculate temporal consistency any statistically significant relationships. We demonstrate that 40-yr climatology hides considerable variability spatial extent pattern–climate relationships across region, with few areas where exceeds 60%. This is primarily response pronounced expansion/contraction and/or mobility patterns’ centers action. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dominant pattern (having highest consistency) affecting SAT west Urals. Farther east, Scandinavian (SCA), Polar/Eurasian (POL), West Pacific are successively influencing Siberian Plains, Central Plateau, mountains Far East Siberia, respectively. From SCA, POL, Pacific–North American exert most consistent PPN. only temporally invariant occur between NAO SCA PPN small European Plain.